Research the concepts of forecasting and predictions in a business or innovation context.

            There are three types of forecasting techniques: qualitative techniques, time series analysis and projection, and causal models. The first uses responses and opinion to obtain insight into conditions and may not use history as a reference. The second technique is the classical analysis of past performance as a predictor of future trends. Finally, causal models evaluate specific information and relationships between elements to predict specific future states (Chambers et al., 2021).

            The qualitative analysis focuses on a particular question and focuses on expert opinions for guidance. For example, Deloitte US conducts annual surveys of healthcare CEO’s about the future trends in healthcare and publishes the results to guide other healthcare leaders. The second option is the classical use of past trending in deciding future actions. In comparison, the final technique answers specific questions about a given scenario and evaluates all given information to outline a narrow path forward.

            Healthcare frequently uses a variety of tools in business and clinical decisions. For example, healthcare frequently uses past financial performance from a financial perspective because of the stability associated with medical costs and expenses. In general, these increase at a predictable rate (Hosseini, 2015). An exciting trend in healthcare is the use of specific models to predict behavior. For example, the past concerns about the novel H1N1 Swine flu pandemic and Ebola epidemics influence organizations to consider future pandemics (Androniceanu, 2020).

Identify and document 1 infamous prediction that came true.

            A common theme in literature is the end of civilization due to deadly pathogens. For example, a show from England in the 1970s call survivor describes a breakdown in communities ravaged by a viral illness. Interestingly, after the novel H1N1 Swine flu pandemic, the American government predicted a time when a virus would compromise economies and cause a devastating loss of life (Gust et al., 2001). Interestingly, the federal government put a plan in place but did not implement the plan (Glock, 2020). Likewise, our leadership accurately predicted a need for high numbers of ventilators and personal protective equipment but failed to implement that plan.

Summarize it, and discuss 2 forces that impact at its success.

            In the above scenario, the powers that be accurately predicted a future pandemic and identified the technological challenges needed to address the problem. The plan was sound, but the political conversations and financial considerations were obstacles the leadership was incapable of overcoming.

References

Androniceanu, A. (2020). Major structural changes in the EU policies due to the problems and risks caused by COVID-19. Administratie si Management Public(34), 137-149. https://doi.org/10.24818/amp/2020.34-08

 

Chambers, J., Mullick, S., & Smith, D. (2021). How to Choose the Right Forecasting Technique. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/1971/07/how-to-choose-the-right-forecasting-technique

 

Glock, J. (2020). Why Two Decades of Pandemic Planning Failed [Information and opinion]. Cicero News. https://medium.com/cicero-news/why-two-decades-of-pandemic-planning-failed-a20608d05800

 

Gust, I. D., Hampson, A. W., & Lavanchy, D. (2001, Jan-Feb). Planning for the next pandemic of influenza. Rev Med Virol, 11(1), 59-70. https://doi.org/10.1002/rmv.301

 

Hosseini, H. (2015). Aging and the Rising Costs of Healthcare in the United States: Can There be a Solution? [Article]. Ageing International, 40(3), 229-247. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12126-014-9209-8